Polls mixed on Kari Lake Senate bid as she enters possible three-way race

Kari Lake is all set to formally announce her entrance into the Arizona Senate race on Tuesday evening. This development sets the stage for a potential three-way competition, pitting her against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Recent polling indicates that this race has the potential to be a close one.

While Sinema has yet to announce her reelection plans, her departure from the Democrats in December of last year has opened the door to Gallego's campaign. Gallego currently stands as the only significant force in the party primary. On the other hand, the GOP race features a more crowded field. Sheriff Mark Lamb, consultant George Nicholson, and engineer Brian Wright have already declared their candidacy. Additionally, former Arizona GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters has also expressed interest in running.

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Assuming Lake clears the first hurdle, she would be within striking distance of claiming the Senate seat. According to a recent survey conducted by National Research Inc. and published in the Washington Examiner, Lake secures 37% support among likely voters in a three-way contest, with Gallego at 33% and Sinema at 19%.

In the event of Sinema's absence from the race, the same survey indicates a tied contest between Lake and Gallego, with both candidates receiving 44% support.

The survey, conducted from October 7th to 9th, involved questioning 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Another survey, conducted by the Democratic-aligned Public Policy Polling (PPP) and published by The Hill, suggests that Lake may face tougher odds against Gallego even in a three-way contest. In such a scenario, Gallego leads with 41% support, followed by Lake at 36% and Sinema at 15%. In a two-way contest, Gallego maintains his lead with 48% to Lake's 43%.

The PPP survey was conducted from October 6th to 7th and involved questioning 522 Arizona voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.3%.

Given the circumstances, the Arizona Senate seat is likely to be one of the most hotly contested races in the 2024 cycle.